在中国

How would you describe China’s geopolitical position at the moment? 中国的边境是安全的, and in East Asia it’s quickly displacing the United States as a hegemonic power. 所以中国是一个非常成功的故事. Outside East Asia, China has a long way to go to become a global power. Yes, it’s a major international trading partner, a major market for the world. The question is, will China rival the United States as a great power around the world? I think that, beyond East Asia, it’s going to be simply a global presence, not a global power.

成为一家全球性企业意味着什么? If you think of the United States after World War II, 如果一个贫穷的国家需要建一座桥, 它去了美国. 如今，它更有可能把目光投向中国. If you have an emergency or a humanitarian crisis, maybe China will be there first to help out. China has become the “go-to country” of the 21st century. China wants to take its place in the global system as a leader. 当然，它有资源来做到这一点. 所以这是一个形象问题，是对地位的追求. The Chinese are proud of what they have accomplished, and they want to compete with the United States and assume the leadership role of the United States.

这个角色对中国有什么好处? China wants other countries to take into account Chinese power. 它还想让美国担心. 它希望美国.S. 分散其资源, to be concerned about the Mediterranean or 中东 or the Western Pacific. 最后, there’s a lot of national pride in the notion that China is indeed a humanitarian state in, 说, 中东. Chinese global leadership can help the Chinese Communist Party achieve legitimacy and support from the Chinese people.

Why is it important for the party to have the supportof the people in a country that’s not a democracy? 毫无疑问, 中国的领导——一党专政, authoritarian country—is always concerned about instability and thus maintaining support from its people. 所以我们在国内看到了镇压, 对言论自由的更大限制, 在报纸, 在电视上. They wouldn’t be doing this if they weren’t nervous. And when China is perceived by the people to be doing well, the Chinese Communist Party does well.

What do you make of speculation that China and Russia are forging closer political ties as a bulwark against the West? Certainly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has transformed Europe and America’s role in Europe. 然而, I think the expectation that you will see closer Chinese-Russian relations and the emergence of blocs is misplaced. 想想对俄罗斯的制裁吧. If you look at the American demands on China, the consensus seems to be, We don’t expect China to follow our sanctions, but we expect it not to undermine them. 到目前为止，中国已经做到了. Also, the Chinese aren’t necessarily pleased with Putin’s actions. They gave him a royal welcome to Beijing during the Olympics and said, “我们支持你, 我们的友谊没有界限.“然后他离开了，入侵了乌克兰, dragging the Chinese into a conflict with Europe and the United States. 他们不可能快乐. Now, over the longer term, China’s the big beneficiary of the war. First, the United States has been trying to pivot its attention to East Asia since 2010. 每次我们尝试, 我们又回到了中东-伊拉克, 叙利亚, Afghanistan—and now we’re getting drawn back into Europe. So how can we reallocate resources and attention to Asia when we’re getting bogged down in Europe? 第二个, 他们的军队在乌克兰被摧毁, the Russians will be increasingly dependent on China in the years ahead. And these sanctions are going to make China a more important economic lifeline for Russia. As Russia gets weaker every day, Russia needs China more and more.

China and India each maintain a strategic relationship with Russia, yet the world’s two most populous nations are probably best described as rivals. Americans often misunderstand India’s strategic alignments. The Indians buy weapons from Russia, but the Russians are no help for Indian strategic interests. 俄罗斯不能在巴基斯坦问题上帮助印度. It can’t help India on the border with China. And it can’t help India deal with the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean. There’s only one country that can do all of that: the United States. 所以在表面之下，美国.S.美印关系一年比一年好. The Indians have a long commitment to nonaligment, 所以他们不会太过美国化, but look beneath the surface and you see India beginning to cooperate more with the United States, 仅仅是因为中国的发展.

How does this relationship further American interests? 这是美国的遏制政策. 我们正在与印度合作, 澳大利亚, 日本, and many smaller countries on the perimeter of East Asia to contain the Chinese navy inside East Asia. The Chinese see this very clearly and they aren’t happy. They accuse the United States of wanting to create a new East Asian NATO, directed at China. But, for the most part, China is also quite content with its growing military influence in East Asia. They’re mostly content with the direction of their security.

Do you see any countries right now that are in the position China was thirty or forty years ago and that someday could become a superpower? Many Americans think a rising India might help us with China, but the problem is that the gap between India and China—in GDP, 在技术, 海军力量与日俱增. 因此，相对于中国而言，印度实际上正在衰落. 日本也帮不了我们. It has a population of 120 million and a stagnant economy and little growth. 巴西的发展不会很快. 所以未来是美国.S.中美的世界. 当人们说， 在与中国打交道时，我们能得到帮助吗? 答案是否定的. If America wants to contain China, it’s going to have to do it by itself.